http://www.elsanglin.com/forums/tags/probability Discussion about fishing in World of Warcraft. en-US Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:29:39 +0000 http://bbpress.org/?v=1.0.3 q http://www.elsanglin.com/forums/search.php http://www.elsanglin.com/forums/topic/probability-and-mr-pinchy#post-2155 Wed, 29 Oct 2008 19:22:40 +0000 donquixote235 2155@http://www.elsanglin.com/forums/ <p>I recently acquired my first Mr Pinchy and burned through his three wishes without getting the pet. Earlier I caught my second Mr Pinchy, and I was curious about what my chances would be of getting the pet out of the six total tries available to me.</p> <p>I used the following formula to come to my findings:</p> <p>1-((F^T)/(O^T))</p> <p>F = the failure rate (in other words, the chance of NOT catching Mr Pinchy, which is 4 of the 5 possible outcomes)<br /> O = the possible outcomes, which is 5 (gift, pet, furious, benevolent, blessing)<br /> T = the number of tries.</p> <p>NOTE: this formula could very well not be accurate; even though I'm pretty strong with math, probability is not my forte. If I've done something wrong with my figures, please let me know.</p> <p>Using the formula I came up with the following odds to catch him:</p> <p>1 wish: 20%<br /> 2 wishes: 36%<br /> 3 wishes: 48.8%<br /> 6 wishes: 73.8%<br /> 9 wishes: 86.6%<br /> 12 wishes: 93.1%<br /> 15 wishes: 96.5%<br /> 18 wishes: 98.2%<br /> 21 wishes: 99.1%</p> <p>Keep in mind that this only reflects the wishes you have left, not the ones you've already used. In other words, if you've already burned through 4 Mr Pinchies and you have just caught your 5th, you have 3 wishes coming to you for a 48.8% chance of catching him, rather than the 96.5% chance reflected for 15 wishes. </p>