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[Contests] Kalu'ak Fishing Derby

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  1. traconis <Angler>, 4 months ago:

    Mightfish wrote:

    Do not do this kind of thing, in the Kalu'ak Fishing Derby. (pic)
    LOL

    because the pool of blood doesent have the pygmy suckerishes

  2. el <Nat Pagle's Love Child>, 4 months ago:

    traconis - Please read Kalu'ak Fishing Derby Strategy, which lists all the options. There is no "best place".

  3. seaborn <Angler>, 4 months ago:

    I would like to know if anyone has come across bugs for this. The same person has been winning the contest on the same realm over and over. I am aware of 4 in a row but have heard others say its been going on since before that too.

  4. el <Nat Pagle's Love Child>, 4 months ago:

    What sort of winning time, seaborn? Also, do you know where they are fishing? Since the derby is now generally agreed to be random, securing 4 victories in a row on 1 angler is (statistically) very unlikely.

  5. seaborn <Angler>, 4 months ago:

    They seem to win the contest at 5-6 mins each time. I do not want to give the name out due to spamming but yes it does seem very unusual. I am going to use one of my opposing faction toons next week to see where they are fishing. I have talk to several people noticing the same thing and a few have stated they have sent in tickets etc. But, since i have gotten all my info here i thought I would post about it to see if anyone has heard of anything like this.

  6. x87bliss <Salty>, 4 months ago:

    I just won the contest in the Grizzly Hills.

    I start at the bottom of the lake by Blue Sky Logging Grounds, near where the southern river starts. There's usually 2-3 pools of Salmon right there.

    As those pools get used, I follow the lake counter-clockwise until I get to the river that flows West-East. I then continue to follow that river out.

    I have never run out of pools to fish before the contest ended. I just got lucky today to be the first after about 5 minutes.

  7. Marlburo <Extremely Salty>, 3 months ago:

    I hate this thing more than almost anything.....that is all.

  8. Garroch <Salty>, 3 months ago:

    I recently read an interesting theory on the General Forums. This is not my own. Credit is due to Nonamesteak from the Firetree server.

    "From the little information Blizzard gives about the Kalu'ak Fishing Derby, you can generally assume it should work like this: beginning at 2:00pm, anywhere you fish that yields a pygmy suckerfish has a small chance to give a blacktip shark. Pools should have a greater chance to give the shark since they drop suckerfish at a higher rate.

    I have been around for all but three Kalu'ak Fishing Derbies since it was introduced, and almost every week it has been won within 6-8 minutes after the start. It is statistically impossible for this to happen with so many people rolling the dice so many times every week and never win within 5 minutes.

    Something must prevent the shark from dropping before the 5 minute mark.

    I had a hypothesis where, if you assume each fishing pool have a loot table (it spawns knowing specifically what items it will give), each pool that already exists at 2:00pm will not have the shark inside it, but pools spawned afterward will include the shark in their loot table. The fishing pool respawn time is about 5 minutes. So, as people fish up all the pools in the first 5 minutes they wouldn't have a chance to get the shark until pools start respawning. The derby is then won shortly after with so many rolls going out.

    I have adopted a strategy where I find a little-known cluster of pools and fish the area dry at around 1:55pm. The pools start respawning right after the tournament starts, so I should theoretically have a 5 minute head start.

    Unfortunately, another interesting mechanic arose while I did this. The pools that had spawned between 2:00-2:05pm did not yield any normal fish. For example, when fishing in a manta ray school I would either get a blank cast (no loot window, bobber disappears, pool disappears if it runs out of casts, no error message of any sort), or a lone pygmy suckerfish. I don't expect many others to experience this since they would be fishing in pre-spawned pools, which would include the normal fish but no shark.

    So, there is some mechanism that specifically prevents fish from dropping during the first 5 minutes. At this point, my only thought is that Blizzard does this as a sloppy fix to prolong the derby and not make it seem trivial when someone wins instantly every week. Possibly a hotfix for people like me that try to gain advantages.

    All my data is from my own personal experiences. If anyone has had anything happen to them that doesn't correlate, I'd like to know. Any other theories on what's going on are also appreciated."

    and then...

    "In my situation, it's programmed to be impossible to get the shark in the first 5 minutes. Respawn theory aside, there is some direct mechanic that causes no fish not to drop at all.

    The actual drop rate of the shark is high enough that when it does starts dropping, someone on the server gets it immediately. There is a 5 minute delay from the official beginning. Then add about a minute or two for the initial casts and travel to Dalaran.

    Were the drop rate actually so low that it takes an average of 7 minutes for somebody on the server to find it, there would be at least one time where somebody won at 2:01pm and another at 2:15pm. "

    Very interesting.

  9. el <Nat Pagle's Love Child>, 3 months ago:

    Garroch - This is a theory I tried to convince myself of during testing. There are a couple of variations:

    1. Doesn't drop in the first 5 minutes.
    2. Drop rate increases over time.
    3. Drop rate increases over number of individual casts.

    ...And then the first "live" winner I talked to claimed to have caught it on their second cast, having then spent 3 minutes waiting for Dalaran to appear. So it is possible to catch the shark immediately. And the tendency not to get a winner within 5 minutes is as much due to Dalaran as to the rarity of the shark.

    We still can't know if the probability of catching the shark increases over time (or with casts). Both are possible (the quest drop "mechanic" does that). My gut feeling it not, because (using known mechanics) it would become increasingly certain that the shark would be caught at some time during the hour. And I know from testing, that there are only (roughly) even odds of catching the shark during the hour:

    Let's use that final estimate, even though it is inaccurate: If the probability is completely flat, then on average, 1 shark = 120 minutes of fishing. Or with 60 people fishing, the shark will be caught in an average of 2 minutes. Plus 3 minutes to actually get the quest completed, and that's 5 minutes. In practice, the average of 2 minutes isn't so equally distributed: The result will be biased above 2 minutes, because there no catch is likely in the first 15 seconds. While there may be more than 60 people fishing (that will vary by realm), that number will already bring anglers into conflict for pools, so will slow down the overall catch rate. The more people, the more conflict, so after a point, adding more people doesn't speed the result - it just makes the result more reliable.

    Sure, that analysis is very vague. But it does suggest that pure randoms could be responsible for the results we are seeing.

  10. traconis <Angler>, 3 months ago:

    Does someone know if the derby is on 5/6/10 because it doesnt show me on the calendar in wow
    and I dont know whats happened?

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