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Archive Document: The precise information here is no longer accurate. In patch 3.0 quest item drops, including quest-only fish, started to use "progressive drop rates": Each cast now increases the chance of finding a quest fish. This will change the pattern described below. The time taken to catch quest fish should now be much less variable - you'll normally get a bite within 10 catches, and never have to wait for 110 catches.

Introduction

Patch 2.4 introduced 5 daily fishing quests. One is available each day. 4 of these quests required a single fish to be caught from open water:

I invited anglers to record the number of successful catches it took to catch the quest fish. For example, Bait Bandits requires a Blackfin Darter, which can be caught in parts of Terokkar Forest. If the first 6 catches at the correct location were other fish, and the 7th catch was the quest fish, the angler would record "7".

Summary of Numbers

724 results were recorded (by the time I started analysing them), from 30 different anglers. I am grateful to those people. The table below summarises all the data, using terms familiar to Gnomish "statisticians". There's an explanation coming up for the dwarves!

Summary Statistics
Value/QuestThe One That Got AwayBait BanditsCrocolisks in the CityFelblood FilletAll
Sample172170203179724
Maximum535911041110
Mean (Average)10.110.59.97.59.5
Median (Middle)77746

The sample is the total number of records. We don't have enough records to be very sure that the results are correct, but we can be reasonably sure.

The minimum number of catches recorded against each quest was 1 in all cases, however the maximum is much higher: In one case it took 110 casts before the fish was caught. Balazar is a patient angler! In theory the maximum is infinity, however anglers will give up before they reach infinity. Indeed, most will give up before they reach 100.

Of course neither 1 nor 110 are typical. The mean and median tell us what's typical. What's the difference? The mean is the average, the median is the middle value. So on average, Bait Bandits will take just over 10 catches to complete (the mean), but we should expect it to take 7 catches (the median). Precisely why those numbers are different will become clear when we look at how the data is distributed.

3 of the quests - The One That Got Away, Bait Bandits and Crocolisks in the City - share very similar means and medians: Means of about 10, and medians of 7. Felblood Filet is easier to catch, with a lower mean (7.5) and median (4). So, I have grouped the first 3 quests together, and examined how the data is "distributed".

Distribution

The graph below shows the percentage of all data, distributed by the number of casts to catch the quest fish, for the quests The One That Got Away, Bait Bandits and Crocolisks in the City. The hatched grey blocks show the raw data. The solid curved line shows the underlying trend. For example, just over 9% of all records caught the quest fish on the very first catch. Catches are only shown up until 20, which includes 2/3 of all records. The trend line will continue to the right, all the way to 110 (or infinity, if you prefer). However, we do not have enough records for most of those points to make it worth graphing them.

Distribution of Data (The One That Got Away, Bait Bandits and Crocolisks in the City)
Graph of Distribution of Data (Away, Bait and Crocs)

The most common single value is 1: The very first catch. The distribution then gradually tails off away from 1. It is that tail that starts to explain the difference between the mean and median. The middle value may be 7, but the data is not distributed between and 1 and 2x7 (14) - the upper value is far higher. So the average is more than the median.

The trend line shown is a polynominal. Or what the dwarves call "a curve". This is a slightly better fit than a simple logarithmic trend line; also, "a curve". Both lines fit pretty well, considering the modest sample size. How well? The line shown has an r-squared of 94%, the logarithmic 89%. R-squared is a measure of fit, where 100% means the line perfectly matches the raw data. For the curious, the equations derived for the percentage of all data (y-axis) are 0.0002c2 - 0.0084c + 0.10 and -0.032Ln(c) + 0.11 respectively, where c is the number of catches.

Random Loot

Catch rates are not constant. But you knew that. What's interesting is not that "random loot is random", but that the trend line apparently tails off to infinity.

Of course the chance of actually reaching infinity is infinitely low. But there is a very small chance you could get annoyingly close. This is the explanation for all those annoying moments when a fish seems to be taking "forever" to bite.

It would be interesting to know whether the same patterns are found in other forms of loot. The apparent randomness of rare dungeon loot is legendary. Quite literally, in the case of Warglaive of Azzinoth. However, I have not seen any robust attempts to analyse that randomness. All the widely used reference sources (such as Thott's book) show the averages for "drop" rates. Perhaps they should use medians, which give a better indication of the typical number of kills required to gain an item?

Learn More

Comments about Random Catches

Below are readers' comments about "Random Catches":

Daily Quest Fish Catch Rates (Data Wanted)

  1. el, March 2008:

    4 of the 5 new daily fishing quests require catching a special quest-only fish. The catch rates for these fish are very variable. I'd like to gather reliable data about how many catches each quest fish takes. In the PTR thread we saw that even with the equivalent of months' worth of data from one character, the pattern wasn't clear. This isn't something I can do alone, nor is it information that the database sites will collect correctly.

    So, I'd like you to please:

    Count the number of catches from starting to fish for the quest fish, to catching the quest fish. If you caught 7 non-quest fish, and then the 8th catch was the quest fish, record 8 against the quest.

    Please post data in this thread using the following format:

    Away:
    Bait:
    Crocs:
    Felblood:

    Here's an example:

    Away: 10,12
    Bait: 1,32,15
    Crocs: 3
    Felblood:

    The first line, "Away", is for The One That Got Away. The two numbers mean that you recorded the quest twice, the first time got World's Largest Mudfish on the 10th catch, the second on the 12th catch. Put a comma between numbers. So Bait Bandits ("Bait") was done 3 times, with the Blackfin Darter caught on the 1st, 32nd, and 15th catch. Crocolisks in the City ("Crocs") was only done once (3rd catch), Felblood Fillet ("Felblood") wasn't completed.

    Please:

    • Only record results for catches that are in the correct location (open water, not pools) when the quest is active: Only submit catch rates if you are sure it is reliable.
    • Don't record anything for Shrimpin' Ain't Easy - the catch rate from that is well understood.
    • Wait until you have done more than a few quests before posting data - ideally post sets every few weeks.
    • If you post several times do not post the same data again! Start a fresh template for each post.

    I'm curious about the catch rate, and I'm hoping enough other people will be to record and post their numbers. This first post will be used to summarise data posted. I'll update it from time to time - don't be concerned if updates don't happen immediately. Any questions or comments can be posted in here to.

    Current Results (to 25 June 2008):

    Value/Quest … Away … Bait … Crocs … Felblood
    Sample ………...… 172 ..… 170 ….. 203 ..… 179
    Maximum ……....… 53 ….. 59 ..… 110 ..… 41
    Mean (Average) ... 10.1 … 10.5 … 9.9 … 7.5
    Median (Middle) … 7.5 … 7 … 7 … 4
    Std Dev ……......… 8.9 … 10.2 … 11.5 … 7.6

  2. Pipre, March 2008:

    Crocs: 2,1

  3. nast13, March 2008:

    Bait: 38, 59

  1. OneSoulLegion, March 2008:

    Felblood: 31,9,2

    As an aside, since you have unconfirmed skill levels in Hellfire Peninsula according to the quest page: The character I did this quest with had an effective skill of 314-318 (292, plus Seth's pole and enchanted gloves, and I got four skillups during the quest at an average of 6-7 casts per skill point) I was getting "Your Fish Got Away" fairly often unless I was using a lure. As such, we can at least guess that the skill required for the Pools is at least 224 and at most 314. I have a lot more alts who are able to travel through Hellfire and at a variety of fishing skills, so I'll try to investigate this further.

    Update: Second character, 9 catches at effective skill of 364 (344+Seth's). No "got away" in ten catches, suggesting (but not proving, could have gotten lucky in the ten catches) required skill is probably between 224 and 269.

  2. Pipre, March 2008:

    Felblood: 3,2

  3. Zariya, March 2008:

    Away: 4
    Bait: 2, 8
    Crocs: 1, 1
    Felblood:

  4. Kraal, April 2008:

    Crocs: 12

  5. rys, April 2008:

    Away: 18, 9, 5
    Bait: 2
    Croc: 12
    Felblood: 2, 21

  6. Aggy70, April 2008:

    Away: 1
    Bait: 9 At the falls just north of Allerion SH
    Croc: 10,3 Docks by Stocks :)
    Felblood: 22,5

  7. Pipre, April 2008:

    Away: 14

  8. Kraal, April 2008:

    Crocs: 22

  9. hurricane567, April 2008:

    Away:11

  10. Ruana, April 2008:

    Crocs: 1, 25, 15, 13

  11. Longhunter, April 2008:

    "Away", 1st cast, 8th cast, 10th
    "Bait", 1st ,12th "near the horde camp"
    "Crocs" 3rd ,12th 2nd 3rd cast"dock"
    "Felblood" 23rd , 1st, 4th 6th "pools of agnor by the boss"

    i will update this daily

  12. Zahngril, April 2008:

    Away: 31, 22, 15, 17
    Bait:
    Crocs:
    Felblood: 21, 16

    Anyone else getting the same daily many days in a row? My order has been: A, F, F, A, A, A. I'm hoping for one of the others soon!

    For Away, my best success is on the 'continental shelf' near the Throne of Elements at Skysong Lake. Go to the throne and wade out until the named area changes. This is a nice spot because you'll get your catch and have 6-8 min. left on lure to fish the 3-4 pools of Bluefin that pop up (Bluefin makes a great spell damage buff food for those cooks out there).

    Felblood was at the Boss' front door each time. I have an action bar for fishing set up with some ranged abilities so if someone comes to do the boss while I am there I can lend some secondary support.

  13. Calabar, April 2008:

    I’m taking four characters through these quests. Here’s what I have for the past couple of days.

    Away: 21, 18, 18, 2
    Bait: 14, 18, 26, 6
    Crocs:
    Felblood:

    Just as an aside, I don’t know if all the realms get the same quest each day but on Blackhand we’ve only gotten the croc quest once thus far. And as that’s the one that can drop the baby croc pet I’m getting a bit frustrated. Grr… *deep breaths* *deep breaths*

  14. Pipre, April 2008:

    felblood: 1

  15. hurricane567, April 2008:

    bait 5

  16. Calabar, April 2008:

    Away:
    Bait:
    Crocs:
    Felblood: 3, 22, 3, 1

  17. Kraal, April 2008:

    Crocs: 9

  18. 95 more comments. Continue reading or reply »
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