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This page describes patch 3.1+ mechanics. For analysis of the role of skill before patch 3.1, read The Role of Skill (Original) »
For a basic introduction and video, see (Not) Catching Junk »

Summary

You can now fish anywhere with fishing skill 1. Each area still requires a certain fishing skill to catch regular fish. If your effective fishing skill is below this value, a proportion of your casts will catch "junk" items. These junk catches replace the message "your fish got away".

There are 5 common junk items (Driftwood, Sickly Fish, Tangled Fishing Line, Tattered Cloth, and Weeds) and 5 rare junk items (Empty Rum Bottle, Old Boot, Rock, Tree Branch, and Water Snail). All junk items sell to vendors for 18c each, except Tattered Cloth and Rock, which sell for 1s. The average income from fishing junk is 35c per catch.

The percentage chance of catching a worthwhile fish when your fishing skill is below the skill required to fish without junk = (current fishing skill as % of area's no-junk skill) ^ 2. The "no-junk skill" was formerly known as the skill required to stop get-aways.

For example: The Frozen Sea requires fishing skill 575 to fish without junk. Assume your effective fishing skill is 400. 400 as a percentage of 575 is 70%. 70% to the power 2, is 48%: With 400 fishing skill, only half your casts will catch a fish.

Approach

I hired a Knight of the Ebon Blade, equipped them with various poles and lures, and sent them off to three different areas of water:

Tests were conducted with a fixed amount of personal skill. For example, 75 personal fishing skill by not training beyond Apprentice rank.

For each area of water, several samples were taken at different skill levels. Each sample contained at least 200 casts. The numbers of worthwhile catches and junk were recorded. (Actually, the original research recorded "get-aways", and a day later junk replaced "get away" messages.)

The raw data is shown in the appendix, and summarised in the graph below.

Casts That Catch a Worthwhile Fish by Fishing Skill
Graph: Successful Casts by Fishing Skill.

The solid curved lines are "best fit" trend lines for each location.

Analysis

The patterns at each location are similar. If we express the fishing skill (on the bottom x-axis) as a proportion of the skill required to fish without junk, the data from all 3 locations merges, as shown in the graph below. Each "+" is a sample.

Role of Fishing Skill
Graph: Successful Casts by Fishing Skill.

The trend line (the curve) is based on this formula:

The percentage chance of catching a fish when your fishing skill is below the skill required to fish without junk = (current fishing skill as % of area's no-junk skill) ^ 2.

For Gnomish statisticians: The R-squared of this line is 99% - a good match to the sample data.

We cannot prove that the curve cuts the left y-axis at 0%, because we cannot fish at skill 0 (or 1) without skill rising to 75. Casual tests suggest that there is a poor chance of raising skill from 1 to 2, but it is possible (certainly in the easiest waters). 0% has therefore been assumed in the formula.

Appendix: Sample Data

Role of Skill: Stranglethorn Vale (225 Skill to Fish Without Junk)
Fishing SkillCastsCasts That Catch
Effective Fishing SkillAs % of Area No-Junk SkillCatchJunkTotal
7533%2218320511%
10044%3316820116%
12556%7113120235%
15067%7912220139%
17578%1307720763%
20089%1594220179%
Role of Skill: Tanaris (300 Skill to Fish Without Junk)
Fishing SkillCastsCasts That Catch
Effective Fishing SkillAs % of Area No-Junk SkillCatchJunkTotal
7525%171832009%
12542%3517420917%
17558%6114020130%
22575%1128920156%
27592%1752520088%
Role of Skill: The Frozen Sea (575 Skill to Fish Without Junk)
Fishing SkillCastsCasts That Catch
Effective Fishing SkillAs % of Area No-Junk SkillCatchJunkTotal
15026%91942034%
27548%4715420123%
45078%1386320169%
50087%1485320174%
55096%1851520093%

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